Most Young Voters Support Kamala Harris − but That Doesn’t Guarantee They Will Show up at the Polls

Young people could decide the 2024 presidential election.

It’s a tale as old as time – a story that pops up every election, almost like clockwork.

The narrative is the same this election cycle. There is a palpable excitement about the possibility of young people making their voices heard in 2024.

Young people, in particular, have broadly voiced their support for Vice President Kamala Harris, who will officially accept her party’s presidential nomination at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 22, 2024.

Harris’ young supporters have created popular TikTok videos and widely-shared memes with coconut trees and ample allusions to the trendy term “brat.”

Both former President Donald Trump and Harris are trying to build on young people’s excitement – through participating in livestreams with popular, young content creators and by copying some of the specific colors and themes that often come up in young people’s online content.

The vibes suggest, perhaps, that a “youth wave” is coming.

Young people mostly support Harris

At present, Harris holds a commanding lead among young people.

Depending on the poll that you look at, if the election were held today, Harris would probably command about 50% to 60% of the youth vote, meaning people ages 18 to 29, or in some cases 18 to 34.

Trump would pull in only about 34% of young people.

What works to increase youth voter turnout

A common assumption of many youth advocacy groups seems to be that more young people would vote if voting were considered cool. We’ve seen that approach again this cycle, with advocates clamoring, for example, for celebrity endorsements from the likes of singer Taylor Swift.

The problem is that this approach doesn’t square with the fact that young people care about politics – they just struggle to follow through.

The biggest hurdle for many young people, in particular, is voter registration. In 2022, data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that only 40% of young people said they were registered to vote in the midterm election.

Programs that help young people register to vote can be particularly effective at getting them to cast a ballot.

It has also become increasingly common for political campaigns to help young adults make a plan to vote – by outlining when and where they are going to vote, as well as how they will get to their polling location.

Other methods, such as sending text message reminders, creating automated calendar reminders and offering transportation to the polls, are also effective at helping young people who want to vote actually do so. Though some of these strategies are being used in the 2024 election, many are not common.

Government policies that make registering to vote and casting a ballot easier would also increase youth voter turnout.

Same-day voter registration is particularly effective at encouraging young people to vote. Likewise, letting 16- and 17-year-olds preregister to vote before they turn 18 can also substantially increase the number of voters under 30. At present, 21 states, including California, Massachusetts, Florida and Louisiana, let 16- and 17-year-olds preregister to vote.

Our research suggests that when states implement these types of reforms, they close the gap between older and younger voters by about a third.

There is some evidence that Harris has reinvigorated the youth vote.

Whether young citizens will show up and deliver the presidency to Harris or stay home and yield to Trump remains to be seen.