Criminal Justice Reform Poised to Be Decisive Issue in 2024 Election, Poll Shows

As America moves toward the most consequential presidential election in recent memory, criminal justice reform has emerged as a potential game-changer, with a new poll revealing broad bipartisan support for reducing incarceration. The survey by BSG for FWD.us reveals that 81% of likely voters support criminal justice reform, including 85% of Democrats, 82% of Independents, and 76% of Republicans. Voters in key battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania overwhelmingly favor reform, positioning the issue as potentially a deciding factor in the 2024 presidential race.

Zoë Towns, Executive Director of FWD.us, discussed the poll’s findings during an appearance on the  Black Press’ Let It Be Known  Black Press’ Let It Be Known  digital show. Towns emphasized that personal experience with mass incarceration is a significant motivator of voter support for reform. “Voters across the political spectrum have been overexposed to the harms of mass incarceration for decades now,” Towns declared. “One in two Americans has experienced incarceration within their immediate families—this isn’t just a policy issue, it’s a lived experience. And the exposure rate is the same whether you are a Republican or a Democratic household.”

Towns pointed out that this shared experience of mass incarceration is why support for reform transcends partisan divides. “The harms of mass incarceration are bipartisan,” she said. “And the support for reform we’re seeing is also bipartisan. People have seen that we don’t have to incarcerate our way out of all these problems—we can have safety and justice at the same time.”

The poll shows that two-thirds of Black voters (67%) and a majority of Latino voters (55%) are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports criminal justice reform, further underscoring the issue’s importance in shaping voter behavior in key demographics. “You’ve got voters who are excited about reform, you’ve got evidence showing it works, and you’ve got proof that it helps the economy and keeps families together,” Towns added.

Despite the overwhelming public support, both major presidential candidates—Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump—have yet to embrace the issue in their campaigns fully. Towns view this as a missed opportunity. “In such a tight election, criminal justice reform is a massively untapped opportunity for both candidates,” she said. “We’ve got voters across the board—Democrats, Republicans, Independents—who are asking for these reforms. So why not meet them there?”

Towns noted that some reforms, such as clemency, have proven particularly popular, especially among Black and Latino communities. “Clemency is hugely important,” she said. “The Obama-era clemency initiative brought home nearly 2,000 people from federal prison, saving an average of 10 years off their sentences. Voters want to see President Biden do something similar in his final months. Clemency can bring families back together, and it’s a key part of what real public safety looks like.”

In fact, the poll shows that 72% of likely voters now believe it is crucial to reduce the U.S. prison population, a significant increase from 65% in February 2024. Among Black voters, that number jumps to 80%, while 74% of Latino voters also say reducing incarceration is critical.

When asked about the persistent use of tough-on-crime rhetoric, Towns explained that while such messaging has been a political staple for years, voters are now seeing through it. “For every American election that’s been studied, scaring people to the ballot box has been the cheapest way to get votes—whether it’s fear of immigration, crime, or foreign influence,” Towns said. “But now, voters are watching those old tough-on-crime commercials alongside an alternative lived experience. Maybe their brother or their mom has been incarcerated, and they’re saying, ‘Wait a second, that doesn’t reflect reality.’ Voters want real solutions, not fear-mongering.”

The poll reveals that more voters today (65%) believe that mass incarceration causes many of the problems that lead to unsafe communities, such as homelessness, poverty, and drug or mental health challenges than did at the beginning of the campaign season. “We know what works to advance safe communities,” Towns said. “There’s a ton of evidence showing what reduces violence and drug use. But for too long, politicians have been playing politics with people’s safety.”

Towns also touched on the legacy of the 1994 Crime Bill, a controversial piece of legislation that continues to shape public perceptions of criminal justice reform. “The 1994 Crime Bill was a punishment-focused reform package that disproportionately harmed Black and Latino communities,” she said. “It built up the federal prison system and left us with laws that continue to affect people today. Many of the people sentenced under those laws are still incarcerated, and their families and loved ones are voters—they’re bringing these experiences to the ballot box.”

Melissa Morales, Founder & President of Somos Votantes, underscored the importance of reform for Latino voters. “We cannot continue the cycle of mass incarceration that has separated so many Latino families and overshadowed real public safety solutions,” Morales said in a statement.

Similarly, Pennsylvania House Speaker Joanna McClinton pointed to criminal justice reform as a critical issue in battleground states. “When I talk to voters in Pennsylvania, criminal justice reform comes up again and again,” McClinton stated. “We know it’s the right policy, and this poll shows that the politics are on our side.”

The poll also indicates that candidates can gain significant political ground by supporting criminal justice reform. Nationally, voters are five times more likely to support a candidate who backs reform than one who does not. The trend is even more pronounced in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, where the ratio is six to one.

As the election draws near, Towns said she believes criminal justice reform represents a low-risk, high-reward issue for candidates. “This is an extremely tight election, and it’s going to come down to a small number of votes in a small number of states,” Towns said. “Criminal justice reform is an issue that can tip the balance—and there’s little downside to supporting it.” Watch the full discussion here.